League of Legends World Championship: What Are The Possible Outcomes For Group B?
Well, group stages are almost over for World’s and it’s just about time to start making predictions for quarterfinals. Group A’s escapees into the quarterfinals have all been decided, with OMG and SK Telecom secured in their advancement, however, Group B still isn’t set in stone, with a lot of twists and turns still in the road. It’s time to take a look at who might be coming out of Group B because in the span of about five hours quite a few dreams will be realized or crushed. First of all, here are the rankings.
2. Gambit Gaming 4-2
3. Samsung Galaxy Ozone 3-3
3. Team Vulcun 3-3
5. Mineski 0-6
All teams have two games to play, and ties are decided first by head to head scores (If a team won more games than the team they tied with), and then if there is still a tie it’s then decided by tiebreaker matches. This is important since the odds of a tie are fairly high in this group. At first glance the standings look pretty clear. Fnatic is all but guaranteed a spot, Gambit is in a moderately riskier position, but still comfy, and the rest of the gang has to hope for a miracle. However, what matters more is who’s playing who, and all of the sudden a tie is looking very likely for Group B. Here is the schedule of matches
Game 1: vsGambit vs Fnatic
Game 2: vsVulcun vs Ozone
Game 3: vs Fnatic vs Mineski
Game 4:vs Gambit vs Vulcun
Game 5:vs Ozone vs Mineski
Now logically there are quite a few options available, and the only team that has no chance of qualifying at the moment is Mineski. Also, Fnatic can’t directly be eliminated at this point without a tiebeaker match in an unexpected edge case. The big assumption being made is that Mineski won’t win any of their matches. Unfortunately the team has issues, and while they have a lot of potential for the future, for the now it looks like they’re going to end worlds 0-8
Match 1: Gambit versus Fnatic: The first match, based off history, should go to Fnatic. Gambit seems unable to win versus the team, and the last time Gambit had success versus Fnatic was in the original spring split. Now it’s important to remember this is World’s and anything can happen, but Gambit is really that bad versus Fnatic – they haven’t beat them since Spring. However, when Fnatic has taken the role of Gambit Kryptonite they’ve had something to play for. At the moment they’re very close to a secured spot, and it might be the case that they don’t plan well for Gambit and focus everything on Mineski, an easier game to win. This should be the least predictable Fnatic versus Gambit in their history.
Match 2: Vulcun versus Ozone: Game two tells the story of the 3-3 contenders looking for a way into quarter finals.. Vulcun and Ozone have both had a myriad of problems this Worlds, with Dade’s champion pool limiting his play, and mistakes from Vulcun tossing away games (which happened versus Ozone in game one). This is the must watch match, and predictions are based heavily off the past few days of performance.
Ozone fans should celebrate as those predictions are heavily in favor of the Korean team. Ozone has steadily been improving throughout the week, with Dade actively adding champions into his pool during their two-day break between matches. With that improvement and a neat double AD strategy they were able to beat Gambit who’d obliterated them before. Vulcun on the otherhand has unfortunately been unable to beat any of the stronger teams, aside from Fnatic on day one when Fnatic looked like a much weaker team. Their problems tend to involve late game strategies and seem much more core to the team that the recent issues from Ozone. It’s unfortunate, but this match is just not in favor of Vulcun.
Match 3: Fnatic versus Mineski: This should be a free win for Fnatic. This is actually the match that spectators expect will cinch Fnatic into quarterfinals if they do lose to Gambit. No offense to Mineski, their spunk and aggression can lead to entertaining games, but they’ve shown they’re not able to compete at the highest level of play. Maybe in 2014 that Pinoy pride will be repping in the Quarterfinals, but for now Mineski will most likely lose.
Match 4: Vulcun versus Gambit: This is the another crucial match for both teams, where Vulcun must fight Gambit to tie and force a tiebreaker. Gambit has shown themselves to be a more stable team, and Vulcun’s issues in mid to late game transitions hold them back quite a bit. Now in the event that Fnatic loses to Gambit, this match will determine whether or not Vulcun or Ozone have a chance at qualifying. This is another high stakes match for Vulcun and they cannot buckle under the pressure. Even if Gambit doesn’t secure victory versus Fnatic if Vulcun loses this match they no longer have a chance at qualifying. The stakes and tensions are high in this match, and this would be the match I expect Gambit to focus on. If they have a secret strategy, it’s coming out here.
Match 5: Ozone versus Mineski: Sorry Mineski fans, but this is another match where Mineski is just outclassed. This is what makes Ozone a bigger threat than Vulcun and on equal footing as Gambit, they have a match to win against the weakest team in the group, and only have to win one match that is likely to be much closer.
Here’s a short summary of the likely outcomes.
Fnatic - Because of their remaining match versus Mineski, they’re pretty much in. Expect a 6-2 or 7-1 score and first seed. They can theoretically end up in a tiebreaker to qualify if they lose to both Gambit and Mineski, but that is highly unexpected.
Gambit - History doesn’t want it to happen, but Gambit’s life becomes much easier if they beat Fnatic. Winning one game secures the team a a tiebreaker spot versus Vulcun or Ozone, or they can advance if neither Vulcun nor Ozone can win two games. If they lose both their games than either Vulcun will advance by going 2-0, or Ozone will advance by going 2-0. There is a possibility of a tie, but Mineski has to beat Ozone, making it a very unlikely edge case.
Vulcun – They need to win 2-0 to have a chance. Unfortunately they’re going against Gambit and Ozone, so they’re going to have to fight hard. The nice thing is that they’re in-control of their destiny. Even if Gambit beats Fnatic, they can tie up the group stage by going 2-0. If Vulcun loses either game though they’re out. It means that Ozone will going 5-3 because of their likely win versus Mineski, or Gambit will at a minimum be 5-3 due to their prior stats. The pressure is on for them.
Samsung Galaxy Ozone - Now Ozone can go 2-0 and still not qualify. This is because Gambit can win both their games, neither of which are versus Ozone, and end up too far in the lead. If they lose their game versus Vulcun though, then either Gambit or Vulcun will advance over them. Really it comes down to the the difficult task of beating Vulcun, the more expected win versus Mineski, and praying Gambit can’t pull out wins.
Mineski - Is an awesome team that should have a powerful showing in their region when they return, and might come back a whole lot more viable next year.
That’s it for now! Worlds is one day away from entering Quarter Finals where the easier to track tournament bracket will be in-place, but for now, happy analysis.
Christopher “Studio” Grant